Euro, Rawan Terpecah Tetapi Belum Bubar

Euro diprediksi akan runtuh perlahan dalam beberapa tahun ke mendatang.

Masa depan Euro-Zone memang tengah dibahas secara intensif oleh kepala-kepala negara di Brussel sejak kemarin (28/06). Namun masih banyak pihak pesimis perundingan di ibukota Belgia itu bisa menghasilkan sesuatu yang produktif. Hampir separuh dari 22 ekonom asal Amerika yang disurvei CNNMoney meyakini satu negara segera keluar dari komunitas euro. Sebagian besar berpendapat dua hingga tiga negara yang akan angkat kaki, dan hanya 1 ekonom yang memperkirakan euro akan ditinggalkan lima sampai tujuh anggotanya.

Mereka juga melihat krisis masih jauh dari penyelesaian dan rawan meluas ke luar wilayah. Separuh ekonom sepakat krisis euro adalah ancaman terbesar bagi perekonomian Amerika Serikat (AS) di masa depan. Sebanyak 10 ekonom cemas jika masalah benua biru menghancurkan pasar keuangan dunia dan 5 orang lebih khawatir dengan penurunan volume ekspor akibat resesi. 7 ekonomi lainnya bahkan melihat potensi kerusakan berantai, termasuk kebangkrutan bank-bank besar.

"Pasar kredit terancam beku, seperti yang terjadi pasca kasus Lehman 2008 silam," ujar Lynn Reaser, Kepala Ekonom Universitas Point Loma Nazarene. Menurutnya, kombinasi antara kehancuran bank akan berimbas pada penurunan tingkat permintaan dari wilayah Eropa sehingga pada akhirnya memperlemah ekonomi negara berkembang.

Memang tidak ada ekonom yang memprediksi euro akan bubar sepenuhnya. Negara-negara besar dan mapan secara ekonomi tidak akan meninggalkan mata uang euro begitu saja. Pemerintah negara-negara Eropa harus menyepakati segala program restorasi kawasan untuk memulihkan kepercayaan publik. Tanpa itu, kemungkinan lebih buruk mengancam sewaktu-waktu.

Source: Monexnews

Forex Weekly Outlook –May 21-25, 2012

The US dollar had a blockbuster week, breaking ground against all currencies apart from from the other safe haven: the yen, as euro-zone issues became more severe. In addition to the ongoing troubles in the euro-zone, US housing data, Japan’s rate decision and US unemployment claims are the major events on out list this week. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers.

Greece is facing new elections in June. Even if a pro-bailout government is elected, the situation there looks bad and talks of a bank run could be a self fulfilling prophecy. The situation in Greece and in Spain has a huge impact on all the world. In the US, things remain OK, with jobless claims  unchanged at 370,000 claims, although retail sales figures disappointed with a lower than anticipated increase. Worries about the Chinese economy rise again. G-8 leaders are meeting in Camp David. Will they announce some kind of coordinated effort to boost the global economy?

1. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK CPI continues to drift further away from the BoE benchmark target of 2%, rising to 3.5% in March compared to 3.4% in February. The main causes for this rise were higher food and energy prices.  The recent increase was in line with predictions. A drop to 3.1% is expected now.
   
2. US Existing Home Sales: Tuesday, 14:00. Existing home sales disappoint in March with 4.48 million units following 4.60 million in February while economists expected an increase to 4.62 million. The unsteady job market and tight credit conditions could explain the recent slowdown in the housing industry. An increase to 4.64 million is expected now
   
3. Japanese rate decision: Wednesday. The BOJ board members decided to extend their asset purchase program by an additional ¥5 trillion ($61.9 billion), in line with expectations and voted to hold overnight rate at 0-0.1%. The BOJ commented that the EU debt crisis effect on international markets has subsided and believes Japanese economy will return to moderate growth once the pace of recovery in foreign economies picks up. The rate is expected to be maintained.
   
4. Canadian retail sales: Wednesday, 12:30. An unexpected drop in car sales during February, led to a disappointing 0.2% drop inCanada’s retail sales following 0.2% gain in the previous month while economists expected 0.1% gain. Meantime Core sales excluding the auto sector increased 0.5% compared to a 0.8% fall in January. Nevertheless, retail sales will contribute to GDP growth. Core sales is predicted to rise 0.6%, while retail sales is anticipated to rise 0.4%.
   
5. US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. Sales of new homes slowed less than predicted in March, to 328,000 from353,000 in February. But the overall figures suggest the housing market is on a modest recovery path with a lower inventory of new homes for sale. A small rise to 335K is anticipated this time.
   
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 8:00. German business sentiment improved moderately in April, reaching 109.9 after109.8 in the previous month indicating a more optimistic view on current economic situation. But the fresh ZEW figure was a disappointment. ZEW President Wolfgang Franz noted that Germany faces downside risks from its trading partners, from higher prices of  crude materials and the EU debt crisis. Business Climate is predicted to decline to 109.5.
   
7. UK Revised GDP: Thursday, 8:30.The first release of British GDP showed a that the UK is in recession – a second consecutive quarterly decline. The contraction of 0.2% will likely be confirmed now, adding pressure on sterling after the dovish words of BOE Governor Mervyn King.
   
8. US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. Durable orders softened unexpectedly in March dropping 1.1% from a 1.9% gain in the previous month. This drop was much worse than the 0.6% rise predicted by analysts. Nonetheless durable orders are notoriously volatile and cannot indicate a substantial trend. An increase of 1.2% is predicted now.
   
9. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits remained unchanged last week at 370,000, indicating a rebound in the job market. The decline suggests better hiring in May following a decline in the previous two months. A small rise to 374,000 is predicted now.

*All times are GMT.

Source: Forexcrunch

TIPS: How to Avoid Taking Profits Too Quickly and Staying with Losing Trades Too Long

Does this sound familiar…

 

“Most of the time I earn a few pips and close out the trade because I want to catch it while it is still profitable. But when the trade goes against me I will hang onto it too long thinking it will come back to profitability but I get scared and close it out so I end up losing more. And then, what’s really frustrating is that the trade ends up moving in the direction of my original trade. How can I learn to ‘stick with my trade’ ?”

 

This is a great question and it is something that all traders, especially in the beginning, have a challenge with. It is also something that is gained through experience. ("What is the Number One Mistake Forex Traders Make")

 

A key thing that a trader must do is acknowledge that you will have losing trades. (Learn a strategy to help stay away from losing trades "Breakouts:How to Stay Away from Some Losing Trades") 

 

If a trade moves against you, as a trader you need to be willing to accept that loss just as you are willing to accept the winning trades. Since you are trading with risk capital, money that you can afford to lose, a trader must be OK with that loss as it will not affect their life style one tiny bit. Losses are simply a part of trading.

 

(If you are not trading with risk capital, stop trading!)

 

Once a trader accepts that concept, they will be more inclined to let a trade “play out” and not jump at the chance to lock in a tiny bit of profit or become distraught as a trade begins to move against them and close out the position. 

 

Next, be certain that you are taking only the higher probability trades, those that are in the direction of the trend, and that your entries are based on a solid technical reason such as a break of support or resistance. 

 

When a trader knows that they are trading a pair that is in a strong trend, they will have the courage of their conviction to be able to “stick with the trade” as it is in a strong trend. (This does not mean that sticking with a trade in the direction of the trend will insure a winning trade. It does mean, however, that you will be taking trades that have a greater potential for success.)

 

Once you have decided on the higher probability pair you will trade and know where you will place your initial stop and limit, when the trade executes…leave it alone! Promise yourself that you will only let the trade limit out or be stopped out.

 

Lastly, be sure that you are following the principles of Money Management. So when the losing trades occur, your losses will be small and manageable.

 

Practice this discipline many, many times in a Demo account until you become comfortable with it. 

Source: Dailyfx

Forex Weekly Outlook May 7-11 2012

The dollar strengthened significantly as worries from all over the globe took over. Elections in France and Greece, US Trade Balance, jobless claims and  Consumer Sentiment are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers awaiting us.

The highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls came out weak, only 115K jobs gained. Yet this is only part of the story: revisions added 53K and the unemployment rate fell once again. With weakness seen from so many places (Europe, the UK, Australia and New Zealand), the US dollar enjoys a still growing economy and safe haven flows. Will this continue?

1. Greek Elections: Sunday. The mainstream, pro-bailout, pro-austerity parties are expected to weaken and lose the absolute majority, leading to negotiations for a shaky right wing government that will try to renegotiate the bailout conditions. This is the scenario with the highest probability. See the 3 scenarios for the Greek elections and the euro. In any case, the coalition negotiations will take quite some time and this will likely cause volatility.
   
2. French Elections, Sunday. Socialist candidate Françios Hollande is expected to win incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy with a small margin. A victory for Hollande will change the current austerity policy in Europe and will hurt the euro in the short term.  A surprise victory for Sarkozy will boost the euro in the short term. See the analysis of how this affects Germany.
   
3. Australia employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Australian economy added an impressive 44,000 jobs in March compared to a contraction of 15,400 positions in the previous month. Analysts estimated a rise of 6,000 jobs. The rise can be explained by the recovery in the US market. Meantime, unemployment rate remained 5.2% below the 5.3% predicted by economists. All in all, a positive reading in the Australian job market. Australian job market is expected to contract by 4,200 jobs and unemployment rate is predicted to increase to 5.3%.
   
4. UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The BOE Monetary Policy Committee chose to maintain interest rate at 0.50% without providing any new monetary stimulus as anticipated. The decision came after better than expected economic readings for the first quarter. Official bank rate is expected to remain 0.50%.
   
5. US Trade Balance: Thursday, 12:30. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in February reaching $46 billion US compared to $52.5 billion in January amid a sharp drop in imports while exports surged to $181.2 billion. Despite the positive tone of narrowing trade balance deficit, the sharp drop in imports can suggest slower growth in the US economy. U.S. trade deficit  is expected to widen to $49.8 billion.
6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. An unexpected decline in the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits occurred last week, with 365,000 claims compared to 392,000 in the previous week. This encouraging figure may help reduce concerns over the recent slowdown in the job market. Jobless claims is expected to increase reaching  372,000.
   
7. US Federal Budget Balance: Thursday, 18:00. The U.S. federal budget balance decreased its deficit to -198.2 billion from -232.0 billion in February. This reading is better than the -202.5 billion anticipated by analysts. U.S. federal budget balance  is expected to turn to a 30.0 billion surplus.
   
8. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Canada’s economy surprised with a strong job growth of 82,300 jobs in March, the A three year record, decreasing unemployment rate to 7.2% for the first time since September 2011. The impressive job gain occurred amid strong private-sector hiring of full-time positions. These surprisingly good readings are way above the 10,500 job gain anticipated by analysts which will lead to further gains in numerous economic sectors. Another increase of 12,900 is expected while unemployment claims is anticipated to reach 7.3%.
   
9. US PPI : Friday, 12:30. The producer price index for finished goods remained unchanged in March after 0.4% gain in February. This reading was below the 0.3% rise predicted by analysts. However Core PPI increased by 0.3% following 0.2% gain in February. Producer price is predicted to remain unchanged this time.
   
10. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 13:55. The preliminary results of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to75.7 in April after reaching76.2 in March. The reading was below the 76.4 figure initially predicted. The final reading was upwardly revised to 76.4. A small increase to 76.5 is expected now.

*All times are GMT.

Source: Forexcrunch

Minyak ke Level Terendah Sejak Februari

Minyak jatuh di bawah $100 per barel untuk pertama kalinya sejak Februari setelah pengusaha AS menambahkan pekerjaan lebih sedikit dari perkiraan, memperkuat kekhawatiran bahwa ekonomi negara pengguna minyak terbesar di dunia tersebut kemungkinan akan kehilangan momentum.

 

Minyak berjangka turun sebanyak 3,2 persen setelah Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS menunjukkan angka payroll naik 115.000, kenaikan terkecil dalam enam bulan terakhir. Perkiraan median dari 85 ekonom dalam survei Bloomberg memperkirakan kenaikan 160.000. sementara itu, pemilu di Perancis, Yunani, Italia dan Jerman akhir pekan ini dapat menentukan bagaimana pemerintah daerah merespon krisis keuangan Eropa.

Minyak mentah kontrak pengiriman Juni turun $3,09, atau 3 persen, ke $99,45 per barel pada pukul 10:27 pagi di New York Mercantile Exchange. Kontrak menyentuh $99,28, level terendah sejak 13 Februari. Harga minyak catat penurunan 5,2 persen pekan ini.

Minyak Brent kontrak pengiriman Juni turun $2,84 atau 2,4 persen menjadi $113,24 per barel di ICE Futures Europe Exchange. Kontrak tersebut sempat mencapai level $113,16, terendah sejak 3 Februari. Premi kontrak patokan Eropa tersebut terhadap minyak berjangka New York melebar menjadi $13,79 dari $13,54 pada sesi kemarin.

Source: Financeroll

Minyak Tembus Dibawah $100 Per Barrel

Minyak mentah WTI AS anjlok lebih dari dua digit untuk kali pertama dalam 3 bulan terakhir, menyentuh level $99.65 per barrel sejauh ini, atau anjlok -2.80%.

Kejatuhan dipicu sejak hari Kamis kemarin ketika OPEC memberikan sinyal untuk menambah output produksi agar dapat menurunkan harga minyak, selanjutnya penurunan minyak tidak tertahankan lagi setelah data nonfarm payrolls menunjukkan kejutan menurun dibawah estimasi dan hal ini memicu ketakutan lemahnya permintaan, padahal persedian minyak mentah AS masih di level tertinggi nya dalam beberapa tahun terakhir.

Secara teknikal, bias intraday masih bearish setidaknya mengincar area 99.23, anjlok lagi dibawah area tersebut seharusnya dapat memicu momentum bearish minyak lebih lanjut menuju area 98.40 & 97.80. Di sisi atasnya, masih diperlukan penembusan konsisten diatas area 100.85 untuk meredakan tekanan bearish minyak.

Source: Monexnews

Dollar Melorot Paska Data Nonfarm Payrolls

Dollar pangkas penguatan setelah melalui periode yang fluktuatif di bursa paska rilis data tenaga dari Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS yang menunjukkan bahwa perekonomian hanya mendapatkan pertambahan tenaga kerja yang lebih kecil dibanding ekspektasi dan menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa pertumbuhan mulai melambat dari laju sebelumnya.

Sisi positifnya, kenaikan tenaga kerja di bulan Maret dan February telah direvisi naik dan cukup mengimbangi penurunan yang terjadi di bulan April.

Upah tenaga kerja AS dilaporkan hanya naik 115,000 selama bulan April, sedangkan tingkat pengangguran turun tipis ke 8.1% dari 8.2%.

Pasar tenaga kerja sering dijadikan indikator kunci dalam outlook perekonomian oleh Federal Reserve dan selanjutnya untuk menentukan apakah masih diperlukan langkah pelonggaran moneter seperti program QE yang pada akhirnya berimbas pada pelemahan Dollar AS.

Oleh sebab itulah data yang buruk membuka peluang kebijakan pelonggaran moneter The Fed, dan menyebabkan Dollar anjlok lagi ke teritori negatif sejauh ini.

Source: Monexnews

Wall Street Terpukul Data Tenaga Kerja AS

Bursa saham AS berjangka anjlok tajam tidak lama setelah laporan tenaga kerja AS hanya menunjukkan kenaikan tenaga kerja lebih kecil dibanding perkiraan, dan mengurangi prospek laju pertumbuhan ekonomi AS.

Indeks DJIA jatuh -92 poin sejauh ini, sementara S&P500 merosot ke level 1374.50 dimana pelemahan bursa dimotori oleh kejatuhan saham-saham teknologi dan keuangan. Bank of America terpantau jatuh -1.1% sedangkan Cisco Systems anjlok -1.70%.

Data tenaga kerja AS yang dirilis menunjukkan bahwa trend pasar tenaga kerja AS tidak stabil, meskipun perekonomian belum terindikasi jatuh tajam, namun trend ini menunjukkan kondisi yang tidak menyehatkan.

Source: Monexnews

Payroll AS Meningkat, Laju Pengangguran Turun

Pertumbuhan ketenaga kerjaan AS kembali melambat pada bulan April, sebuah sinyalemen baru bahwa ekonomi kemungkinan bertahan menjadi musim semi yang lamban.

Nonfarm payroll meningkat sebesar 115.000 di bulan lalu, Departemen Tenaga Kerja Jumat mengatakan. Tingkat pengangguran terus berkurang sepersepuluh persen poin menjadi 8,1 persen. Ekonom dalam survei Dow Jones Newswires memperkirakan kenaikan sebesar 168.000 pada payroll dan tingkat pengangguran tetap di 8,2 persen pada bulan April.

Pada catatan positif, payroll di Maret tumbuh sebesar 154.000 yang direvisi naik dari 120.000 pada laporan di bulan sebelumnya, dan payroll di Februari membukukan kenaikan sebesar 259.000 dibandingkan dengan perkiraan sebelumnya 240.000.

Tingkat pengangguran telah menurun tajam sejak Agustus, ketika berada di 9,1 persen, meskipun beberapa dari penurunan dikarenakan banyak orang yang meninggalkan pekerjaan. Pejabat Federal Reserve memperkirakan hanya tumbuh bertahap hingga sisa tahun ini. Minggu lalu Fed memperkirakan bahwa tingkat pengangguran akan jatuh ke laju antara 7,8 persen dan 8,0 persen pada akhir tahun ini.

Laporan hari Jumat menunjukkan bahwa perusahaan swasta kembali memicu pertumbuhan, menambah 130.000 pekerjaan pada bulan April. Pemerintah, sementara itu, memangkas payroll sebesar 15.000.

Pertumbuhan pekerjaan berasal dari berbagai sektor. Bisnis profesional dan jasa, yang meliputi tenaga bantu sementara, teknik dan desain perangkat lunak, menambahkan 62.000 pekerjaan. Sektor ritel rebound, sementara kesehatan dan manufaktur terus meningkat. Manufaktur menambahkan 16.000 pekerjaan.

Upah beringsut meningkat. Penghasilan rata-rata per jam naik 1 persen menjadi $23,38. Upah naik 1,8 persen pada basis tahunan. Rata-rata pekan kerja tidak berubah di 34,5 jam.

Sebuah indeks pengangguran yang lebih luas – yang meliputi pencari kerja serta mereka yang terjebak di pekerjaan paruh waktu – tidak berubah sebesar 14,5 persen.

Source: Financeroll, Bloomberg

Bursa Hong Kong Ditutup di Minggu Terbaiknya

Bursa Hong Kong berada minggu terbaiknya dalam hampir tiga bulan terakhir hari ini. penurunan hari ini didorong oleh kelemahan sektor developer Cina setelah perusahaan properti terbesar Cina mengalami penurunan penjualan bulannannya.

Hang Seng ditutup turun 0,77 persen hari ini, meskipun demikian, Hang Seng naik 1,66 persen minggu ini ke kisaran 21.086. China Enterprises di Hong Kong ditutup turun 0,95 persen hari ini dan turun 0,21 minggu ini ke kisaran 10.882,18.

Shanghai Composite Index ditutup naik 0,49 persen ke kisaran 2.452,01, penutupan tertingginya sejak 13 Maret lalu.

China Resources Land Ltd dan China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd turun 3,6 persen dan 2 persen. China Vanke Co Ltd melaporkan penurunan penjualannya sebesar 6 persen menjadi 7,4 milyar yuan pada bulan April lalu dari tahun sebelumnya. Penurunan tersebut sekaligus mengakhiri kenaikannya selama dua bulan terakhir.

Source: Financeroll

Draghi: Perekonomian Masih Beresiko Menurun

Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa, Mario Draghi pada Kamis (03/05) menyatakan bahwa perekonomian masih terlihat mengandung resiko menurun, hal ini berkenaan dengan kondisi yang terjadi di beberapa pasar obligasi yang ada.

 

Draghi menyatakan pula bahwa ECB akan memperhatikan sinyal-sinyal dimana kenaikan harga energi (minyak) mencapai ke ambang batas dimana Bank Sentral melihat resiko inflasi jangka menengah masih seimbang.

Mengenai Kredit, Draghi memberikan pernyataan bahwa permintaan akan kredit masih lemah dan oleh karena itu perlu waktu lebih lama lagi bagi ECB untuk mengeluarkan kebijakan likuiditas secara menyeluruh. Draghi menegaskan bahwa operasional pembiayaan dalam jangka panjang akan memiliki dampak yang sangat positif dalam penyeluran kredit saat permintaan juga telah kembali.

ECB sendiri memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga pada tingkat 1% dihari Selasa kemarin.

Source: Financeroll

Komentar Draghi Yang Tidak Terlalu Pesimis Berhasil Topang Euro

Setelah ECB pertahankan suku bunga tidak berubah di level rekor terendah 1%, Presiden ECB, Mario Draghi mengawali konferensi pers nya dengan komentar bahwa ada resiko penurunan outlook perekonomian Eropa dengan laju inflasi masih stabil diatas target bank sentral 2%, namun untuk jangka menengah kestabilan harga inflasi masih dapat diraih.

Selain itu Draghi menyebutkan meskipun Eropa terpuruk, namun ekonomi dunia melanjutkan ekspansi, dimana hal ini dapat menolong kawasan Eropa memperbaiki laju pertumbuhan dan optimis bahwa yield obligasi sovereign Eropa pada akhirnya akan menurun asalkan potensi pertumbuhan dapat didorong lagi melalui reformasi secara struktural.

Komentar Draghi yang secara keseluruhan tidak menunjukkan pesimisme / dovish sedikit membantu mata uang Euro menguat dari titik terendah intraday 1.3095 ke 1.3151 sejauh ini, bagaimanapun kenaikan masih terbatas sampai setidaknya Draghi menyelesaikan sesi tanya jawab dalam konferensi pers ECB.

Source: Monexnews

Inflasi April Belum Direspon Positif, Rupiah Melemah

Mata uang Rupiah pada Rabu (2/5) bergerak melemah 10 poin seiring masih minimnya sentimen positif di dalam negeri.  Nilai tukar mata uang rupiah yang di transaksi antar bank di Jakarta hari ini bergerak melemah 10 poin menjadi Rp 9.190 dibanding sebelumnya di posisi Rp 9.180 per dolar AS.

Inflasi April yang sebesar 0,21 persen belum respon positif pelaku pasar uang di dalam negeri.  Penanganan krisis di Eropa yang belum meredakan kekhawatiran pelaku pasar keuangan global masih menjadi sorotan pelaku pasar. Kondisi itu membuat aset-aset berisiko belum diminati investor sehingga mempunyai kecenderungan melemah.

Otoritas Bank Indonesia (BI) masih mengintervensi pergerakkan rupiah terhadap mata uang asing terutama dolar AS agar terjaga fluktuasinya.  Meski rupiah mempunyai tren pelemahan sejaka Maret lalu, namun fluktuasinya masih terkendali, kondisi itu dinilai lebih baik. Diprediksi hari ini rupiah bergerak di kisaran Rp 9.180 – Rp 9.200 per dolar AS.

Di tengah ketidakpastian ekonomi global,  mata uang yang diminati investor adalah  nilai tukar Yen, dibanding dolar AS.  Kondisi AS yang ekonominya mengalami perlambatan membuat dolar AS juga kurang diminati.

Rupiah relatif akan terjaga pada hari ini di kisaran Rp 9.180 hingga Rp 9.190 per dolar AS.  Sentimen perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan positif terkait dengan data manufaktur di AS dan Cina yang naik, kondisi itu membuat rupiah masih terjaga.

Source: Financeroll

Jumlah Pengangguran Euro-zone Segera Tembus 11%

Untuk kali pertama sejak mata uang euro diperkenalkan, rasio pengangguran di wilayah tersebut menembus rekor tertinggi.

Data pengangguran disesuaikan euro-zone memperlihatkan bahwa jumlah warga tanpa pekerjaan sudah mencapai 10,9% di bulan Maret. Rasio tersebut 0,1% lebih tinggi dibanding catatan bulan sebelumnya yang sebesar 10,8%. Kantor pusat statistik, Eurostat, melaporkan angka pengangguran di 17 negara pengguna valuta euro naik 169.000 menjadi total 17,365 juta orang.

Jumlah dan total kenaikan di bulan Maret adalah yang tertinggi sejak mata uang tunggal pertama kali diluncurkan 1999 lalu. Beberapa analis memprediksi rasio pengangguran segera menembus 11% dalam beberapa bulan mendatang dengan potensi lebih berbahaya ke 11,5%. Alasan di balik asumsi tersebut tidak lain adalah perlambatan ekonomi di berbagai negara akibat krisis hutang. Di tengan program pemangkasan anggaran, sektor industri dan bisnis belum akan pulih tahun ini sehingga daya serap tenaga kerja justru rentan memburuk.

Source: Monexnews

Pembayaran Gaji Jepang Naik 1,3%

Total pendapatan bulanan kas per karyawan di Jepang tercatat menguat untuk kedua kalinya berturut-turut Maret lalu, lebih tinggi 1,3% dari ¥278,333 setelah Febuari lalu naik 0,1%, seperti ditunjukkan pada data awal dari Kementerian Kesehatan, Tenaga Kerja, dan Kesejahterahan hari ini.

Gaji pokok yang dilaporkan untuk year on year pertama naik hampir dalam empat tahun terakhir (47 bulan) sementara pembayaran lembur menandakan kenaikan year on year keenam berturut-turut. Bonus dan pembayaran ekstra lainnya yang dilaporkan naik dalam tiga bulan terakhir.

Namun kenaikan gaji ini mungkin tidak menggambarkan secara sepenuhnya pelemahan bursa kerja dalam dalam realitas.

Kenaikkan tajam Maret lalu adalah rebound dari pelemahan yang terjadi sebelumnya karena bencana gempa Maret lalu, dan angka pada bulan Febuari terdorong oleh dua hari kerja karena tahun kabisat, dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya.

Maret tahun lalu, operasi pabrik terpangkas oleh matinya hubungan listrik yang dihasilkan oleh Tokyo Electric Power Co. untuk kota-kota disekitar Tokyo dan sekitarnya sementara gempa dan tsunami merusak jaringan persediaan, memaksa para produsen mobil untuk menghentikan produksi.

Pada data terakhir, rata-rata gaji pokok, indikator utama untuk pemulihan pendapatan karyawan, naik 0,7% pada tahun buku yang berakhir pada Maret (dari -0,9% pada Mart 011) setelah Febuari sebelumnya tidak berubah dan -0,3% pada Januari.

Pembayaran lembur mencatat penguatan keenamnya, 4,4% lebih tinggi pada tahun buku yang berakhir pada Maret (dari +1,6% pada Maret 2011) dan +3,% ada Febuari, mempertahankan tren penguatan dan memimpin pemulihan secara bertahap pada hal gaji.

Bonus dan pembayaran ekstra lain naik 7,8% pada Maret (dari -9,2% pada Maret 2011), mencatat penguatan pertama year on year pada tiga bulan terakhir, setelah -17,0% pada Febuari.

Jam kerja lembur pada sektor manufaktur naik 10,3% pada Maret, mencatat penguatan kesepuluh bulannya setelah -0,3% pada Febuari.

Dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya, jam kerja lembur pada sektor manufaktur naik 0,4% dengan basis penyesuaian musiman, menunjukkan penguatan month on month keempat setelah +5,3% pada Febuari.

Total jam kerja lembur dari semua sektor industri naik 3,3% paa tahun buku yang berakhir pada Maret, menunjukkan penguatan bulanan ketujuh berturut-turut setelah -0,6% pada Febuari.

Total jam kerja naik 1,5% year on year pada Maret, mencatat peningkatan bulanan kedua, namun fase peningkatan melemah dari -3,3% pada Febuari.

Jam kerja pekerja biasa naik 0,6% year on year pada Maret, naik untuk bulan ke-73 berturut-turut, setelah naik pada fase yang sama Febuari lalu.

Karyawan biasa adalah pekerja dengan pembayaran gaji tetap dan mereka dengan status paruh waktu.

Source: Financeroll

Analysts See Record S&P 500 as Advance Over for Barclays

Analysts predict U.S. shares will rise enough this year to boost the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a record, even as Wall Street strategists say the best is already over for American equities. 

Individual price forecasts for stocks show the combined projection for the benchmark gauge has climbed to 1,569.74, according to more than 10,000 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with the October 2007 high of 1,565.15. At the same time, strategists who base their predictions on assessments of the economy say this year’s 12 percent rally represents all the gains investors will see. 

Bullish forecasts are based on analysts’ expectations that S&P 500 earnings will reach records every year through 2014 as stimulus by the Federal Reserve props up the U.S. economy. More than 70 percent of companies have exceeded estimates with first- quarter results. Bears say Europe’s debt crisis won’t be contained and economic growth will be insufficient to maintain gains that have restored more than $3 trillion to U.S. equities in six months. 

“The financial strength of corporate America is stronger than people believe,” Jeffrey Schwarte, a money manager who helps oversee about $258.2 billion in Des Moines, Iowa, at Principal Global Investors, said in a telephone interview on April 25. “We believe earnings ultimately matter.”  

 Apple, Boeing 

Stocks rose last week, pushing the S&P 500 up 1.8 percent to 1,403.36, as earnings topped estimates at Apple Inc. (AAPL), the world’s largest company by market value, and Boeing Co., the biggest aerospace company. Computer and software providers, telecommunications companies and banks and brokerages are topping estimates by more than 10 percent on average, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

The benchmark gauge for American equities has climbed 107 percent since March 2009, pulling within 12 percent of its record high. The measure is up 28 percent after falling to a one-year low Oct. 3 as U.S. unemployment dropped from 9.1 percent to 8.2 percent in seven months. Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in June slipped less than 0.1 percent to 1,398.3 as of 9:40 a.m. in London today. 

About 75 percent of the companies in the benchmark measure that reported results since April 10 have exceeded Wall Street earnings projections, beating by an average of 7.1 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the highest rate in four quarters, the data show. Eight of the 10 groups in the index have delivered income that surpassed projections.

Record Profits

Analysts are signaling that 13 straight quarters of higher- than-expected earnings and record profits through 2014 will help drive the gauge back to its all-time high. Earnings will jump 14 percent to $105.12 a share in 2012, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. 

Record profits have failed to convince strategists that the S&P 500 will advance further. As much as $770 billion was wiped off the values of U.S. equities after the measure peaked on April 2, amid concern over Europe’s debt crisis and slower-than- estimated U.S. jobs growth. 

The benchmark index will end this year at 1,384, or 1.4 percent below its close on April 27, according to the average of 11 strategists tracked by Bloomberg. While earnings topped projections, they’ve spurred average post-earnings daily gains of just 1 percent in companies that exceeded estimates. That compares with a five-year average of 1.3 percent, Bloomberg data show.

‘Policy Uncertainty’

“When companies beat, their stocks are basically unchanged relative to the market,” Barry Knapp, the New York-based head of equity strategy at Barclays Plc, said in a telephone interview on April 27. “What drives real secular bull markets is multiple expansion. Massive policy uncertainty exists today in both monetary and public policy. Settling those two issues is a necessary condition to have another bull market.” 

Knapp says the S&P 500 will fall to 1,330 at the end of the year. Strategists’ mean forecast for the S&P 500 has been below stock analysts’ projection for the index since at least April 1, 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The spread reached its widest level since then on April 27. 

Gina Martin Adams, the New York-based equity strategist for Wells Fargo & Co., said the S&P 500 will fall to 1,360 as the Fed ends its Operation Twist, a plan to swap $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with long-term securities to lengthen the average maturity of its holdings. The federal budget deficit and slowest post-recession expansion since World War II are holding valuations down, she said.

‘More Downside’

“The market is set up for a little more downside than upside risk, more because of policy reasons than anything,” Adams said in a telephone interview on April 25. “It’s not really an earnings question, but more of a valuation question. Over the last three years in every instance the Fed has finished one of its major programs, stocks have suffered.” 

The S&P 500 slid last year to a two-year low of 11.9 times reported profit after the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing ended, Europe’s crisis intensified and American lawmakers debated raising the federal debt limit. While the gauge’s multiple has since rebounded to 14.3, it’s still below the six- decade historical average of 16.4, Bloomberg data show. 

Lloyd C. Blankfein, chairman and chief executive officer at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said he is more optimistic about markets than some economists. 

“Gun to my head, I tend to be a little bit more positive than what I’m hearing from other people,” he said during an April 25 interview on Bloomberg Television with Erik Schatzker. “The world is a little bit bifurcated between what economists are saying and what market people are saying.”

Delivery Demand

FedEx Corp. (FDX), a barometer for the economy because it delivers goods from mobile electronics to pharmaceuticals, may reach $123 a share, surpassing the record $120.97 in February 2007, according to Justin Yagerman, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG. While European demand remains a risk and has hurt Asian exports, the world’s largest cargo airline is cheaper than five years ago. The Memphis, Tennessee-based company closed at $88.27 last week. 

“Slowing European demand has been a risk factor, though commentary anecdotally from companies has been that Europe has probably held up better than expected,” New York-based Yagerman said in a telephone interview on April 25. “We take an optimistic view on global growth over the long term. Over the near term, we’re extremely bullish on domestic U.S. growth and a lot of that’s driven by e-commerce and by pricing.”

Macy’s Rallies

Daniela Nedialkova, a London-based analyst for Atlantic Equities LLP, predicts Macy’s Inc. (M) will jump to $51 a share, 9.7 percent above its March 2007 record of $46.51. While annual sales at the department-store operator have slipped 2.1 percent since 2007, the Cincinnati-based company has improved its inventory management systems and product lines in the last five years, she said. Macy’s rallied 5.4 percent last week to $41.19. 

“2007 was still very much in the consumer spending boom years,” Nedialkova said in a telephone interview on April 26. “Versus how the company looked in 2007, I think it’s in so much better shape,” she said. “The way I’m modeling sales growth at Macy’s is actually thinking about market-share gains. If the economy actually improved, that would help.” 

Gross domestic product in the U.S. will expand 2.3 percent this year, according to the median economist projection, compared with 1.7 percent in 2011 and 3 percent in 2010. Economists forecast the euro area will contract 0.4 percent and China will expand at the slowest pace since 2001. 

“The U.S. economy is going to grow faster than people think, so I think we’re going to not have a recession,” Byron Wien, the New York-based vice chairman of the advisory services unit at Blackstone Group LP, the world’s biggest private-equity firm, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television with Tom Keene last week. 

The Federal Reserve suggested “growth is going to be better than expected,” Wien said. “Earnings are going to be good.” 

Source: Bloomberg

Apple, Google Could Join Dow Index: Barron's

The Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index is due for an overhaul, and new-tech giants like Apple Inc and Google have good arguments for joining the elite 30 companies at the expense of old-industry stalwarts like Alcoa Inc, Barron's said on Sunday.

The business weekly said the Dow has no timetable, but a new company or two could be added in the next year.

The three most likely stocks to be replaced in the index are aluminum maker Alcoa, Bank of America and Hewlett-Packard, Barron's said in its latest edition.

"The guardians of the Dow need to ensure that this benchmark, created in the 19th century, stays relevant for a 21st century market," it wrote.

Yet admitting Apple, the world's most valuable company with a market capitalization of roughly $563 billion, or Google, would be difficult, Barron's said, because of the way the index is calculated. Unlike the Standard & Poor's 500 and other major indexes, the Dow weighs its 30 components based on the absolute price of their shares.

Apple, whose shares on Friday closed at $603, would overwhelm the index with a 26 percent weighting.

That is double the influence of current Dow component IBM, whose $207 stock price gives it a 12 percent weighting in the index, Barron's said.

Barron's said the heavy weighting that Apple would command at its current share price could prove a barrier to becoming a Dow component. To guarantee a Dow spot, Barron's said, Apple would have to split its shares by five-for-one or 10-to-one. But Barron's noted that Apple has not split its stock since 2005.

The lack of splits poses difficulties for the Dow because high-priced components like IBM exercise a growing impact while low-priced members like Alcoa, Bank of America and General Electric get marginalized.



Source: Reuters

EUR/USD Outlook February 6-10 2012

Euro/dollar remained steady as the US was in the limelight and the debt crisis was on the back burner. Greece returns to center stage. Will a solution be found? Or is a fall awaiting us?. The main event this week is the rate decision. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Pressure is growing on Greece’s politicians to accept harsher measures regarding the labor market and to fully commit to them, also after the elections. Negotiations are at a sensitive point. In the US, the excellent jobs report lowers the chances of QE3 and provided hope for the whole world. It weakened EUR/USD.

EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. German WPI: Publication time unknown at the moment. Wholesales prices remained unchanged after two months of bigger changes: a rise of 0.7% and a drop of 1%. No big changes are predicted now.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. This survey of 2700 analysts and investors has been in negative territory for the past 6 months. This reflects pessimism. Nevertheless, the score surprised by moving up to -21.1 points last month and is now predicted to advance to -14.6 points.
   
3. German Factory Orders: Monday, 11:00. Europe’s No. 1 economy has seen 3 months of relatively strong changes in the value of orders. After a drop of 4.8% last month, a small rise of 0.5% is expected now. A bigger rise won’t be surprising after the sharp falls and given the history of this index.
4. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 11:00. Industrial output corrected a a rise of 0.8% two months ago and dropped by 0.6%. Another small drop of 0.1% is predicted now. The euro is sensitive to larger changes in this indicator.
5. German Trade Balance: Wednesday, 7:00. Germany’s surplus counters the whole continent. After reaching 15.1 billion last month, the top end of the range seen in recent months, a drop to 14.1 is expected in the surplus. A weaker euro helps Germany’s export machine.
6. Rate decision: Thursday, 12:45, with press conference at 13:30. There is a relatively low chance that Mario Draghi will cut the interest rate to 0.75%. Most economic indicators across the continent point to a recession, and a rate cut could help the economies. But the move will likely run into opposition, as 1% is the lowest rate ever, also during the worst days of the financial crisis. In addition, headline inflation is still above the 2% target, at 2.7%. It’s clear that for Draghi, headline inflation isn’t the “single needle in the compass”, but he will have a hard time convincing other members.
   Draghi takes pride in the LTRO operation that stabilized the banks. This will likely be the focus of the press conference, towards the next operation at the end of the month.
7. German Final CPI: Friday, 7:00. According to the initial publication, prices fell by 0.4% in January. This will likely be confirmed now. A sharper fall in prices can trigger more pressure for cuts on Draghi.
8. French Industrial Production: Friday, 7:45. Europe’s second largest economy enjoyed two consecutive months of growth in industrial output. The surprising rise of 1.1% seen last month will likely be corrected with a drop of 0.8% this time.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar kicked off the week with a drop to the 1.3060 line before bouncing to the 1.3212 line (mentioned last week). Both lines were temporarily breached at times, but towards the end of the week, this turned into a perfect range. All in all, the pair ended the week a bit lower, at 1.3143.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

The round number of 1.38 capped the pair in September and also later on. It is weak and distant resistance. 

1.37 had a similar role at the same time and also worked as support afterwards. It is stronger resistance.

1.3615 switched from support in October to support in November and is now resistance. 1.3550 capped the pair in November and December and marked the beginning of the plunge.

1.3450 was support in November and then switched to minor resistance. It used to be a stronger line, but is only minor now. 1.3330 provided some support for the pair during December 2011 and is minor now.

Quite close by, 1.3280 had a similar role at the same time, and is stronger. 1.3212 held the pair from falling and switched to resistance later on. This is a key resistance line, as seen in February 2012.

The 1.3145 line, which was the lowest point recorded in October 2011, is now a pivotal line in the middle of the range. 1.3060 was the top border of a very narrow range that characterized the pair towards the end of 2011. It is now key support on the downside after serving as the bottom border of the range.

The round number of 1.30 is psychologically important but is much weaker now. It was a pivotal line before Bernanke’s rally. The 1.2945 line is stronger once again and still provides support.

1.2873 is the previous 2011 low set in January, and it returns to support once again. This is a very strong line separating ranges. 1.2760 is a pivotal line in the middle of a recent range. It provided support early in the year.

1.2660 was a double bottom during January and the move below this line is not confirmed yet. 1.2623 is the current 2012 low, but only has a minor role now.

A more important line is 1.2587, the trough of August 2010. This line will be closely watched on any move downwards. A break below this line will send the pair to levels last seen 18 months ago.

Uptrend / Downtrend Channels Broken

EUR/USD has now stabilized in flat range trading after the downtrend channel and later the uptrend channels have been broken.

I turn from neutral to bearish on EUR/USD

Time is running out. Greece is getting closer to default. It isn’t clear if the blame is on the Greek leg dragging or on the harsh pressure from the troika. As time passes by, a solution is further away and more money leaves Greek banks. Also with an orderly default, Portugal is just around the corner for following Greece’s footsteps.

For the euro, one of the main drivers higher was the higher chance of QE3 in the US. With such a strong jobs report, the chances of dollar printing are now significantly lower.

If you have interest in a different way of trading currencies, check out the weekly binary options setups, including EUR/USD, GBP/JPY and more.

Sumber: Forexcrunch

Wall St Menyambut Gembira Data Ketenagakerjaan AS

Wall Street melesat di awal sesi perdagangan hari Jumat menyusul datangnya berita menggembirakan dari sektor tenaga kerja AS. Data Non Farm Payrolls yang dirilis baru-baru ini berhasil menunjukkan solidnya pertumbuhan lapangan pekerjaan, yang mementahkan ekspektasi para ekonom.

Setelah mengakhiri perdagangan sesi sebelumnya dengan flat, Dow Jones Industrial Average mengawali perdagangan hari ini dengan melesat lebih dari 100 poin dengan dipimpin saham BofA dan JPMorgan. S&P 500 dan Nasdaq Composite juga menguat tajam dengan sama-sama mengumpulkan 0,9%. Ke-10 sektor S&P diperdagangkan di zona hijau, dengan sektor keuangan dan kebutuhan konsumen menunjukkan performa terbaik di antara sektor-sektor lainnya.

Berdasarkan laporan Departemen Tenaga Kerja, perekonomian AS berhasil menciptakan 243.000 lapangan pekerjaan baru pada bulan Januari, yang merupakan kenaikan terbesar sejak April 2011. Kenaikan tersebut turut menekan tingkat pengangguran untuk turun menjadi 8,3% dari sebelumnya 8,5%. Kedua data tersebut berhasil mementahkan ekspektasi para ekonom.

"Para pelaku pasar di Wall Street telah menantikan kejutan semacam ini, di mana data sebelumnya juga direvisi menjadi lebih baik," kata Todd Schoenberger, direktur manajer LandColt Trading. "Kondisi ini mengindikasikan jika keuntungan perusahaan masih berlanjut, sehingga mereka bersedia menambah lebih banyak pekerjaan."

 

 

 

 

Sumber: Monexnews

EUR/USD Outlook Jan. 30 – Feb. 3 2012

Euro/dollar had a fantastic week, rising on fresh hope for Greece and from a weaker dollar, courtesy of Ben Bernanke. The upcoming week starts with an important summit and is packed with economic indicators. Here is an outlook for the week’s events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Bernanke’s pledge to keep interest rates at near-zero levels until late 2014 and the openness towards QE3 hurt the dollar across the board and the euro certainly enjoyed it. And Europe isn’t only Greece: fresh figures provide hope that Europe could avoid an outright recession. Also the downgrade many euro-zone countries by Fitch couldn’t stop the move. of Will this rally continue?

Updates: Germany reportedly wanted a bigger influence on Greece’s budget decisions, and Greece rejected it. Together with the still-stuck PSI talks, the euro faces pressure at the beginning of the week. EUR/USD indeed slid within the rising channel as the EU Economic Summit begins. Italy’s bond auction was OK, but still worrying. Another rally was capped and ended in a downfall, below channel support. The situation in Greece and Portugal is becoming worse. The euro is ignoring the German cornering of Greece and prefers to see the global growth. EUR/USD managed to recapture the channel it lost and it now trades under 1.32.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. EU Economic Summit: Monday. The series of meetings, conferences and summits continue. Talk about keeping Greece off the agenda were likely premature. The role of the ECB in the debt crisis, safeguarding other countries and avoiding recession are probably going to be high on the agenda. It will be interesting to see how France’s role, after it lost its AAA rating.
2. German CPI: Monday. The German states publish their initial CPI estimates at various hours during the day. After a few months of little changes, prices jumped by 0.7% last month. Another month of rises is likely now, but the scale will likely be lower.
3. German Retail Sales: Tuesday, 7:00. Europe’s No. 1 economy has shown positive economic signs of late.  After two months of drops in the volume of retail sales, a rise is expected now.
4. French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 7:45. Europe’s second largest economy has seen subtle changes in the level of consumer spending in the past few months. A rise will probably follow last month’s minor slide of 0.1%.
5. German Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 8:55. Germany continues to enjoy a drop in the number of unemployed people and a drop in its unemployment rate, which attracts migrants from all over the continent. After losing 22K unemployed people last month, a smaller drop is expected now.
6. Unemployment Rate: Tuesday, 10:00. Contrary to Germany, most other euro-zone countries are suffering higher unemployment. The harmonized figure is 10.3%, and will likely remain unchanged. A similar figure is expected now.
7. Final Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 9:00. The initial purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector exceeded expectations, rising to 48.7 points. This is still in contraction zone (under 50 points). The figure will likely be confirmed.
8. CPI Flash Estimate: Wednesday, 10:00. Headline inflation remains above the 2% target, but this plays a smaller role in the ECB’s policy making process. A small drop from last month’s 2.8% rate is expected now.
9. PPI: Thursday, 10:00. Producer prices have been on the rise for the past 3 months, but the pace has been quite moderate: 0.1% to 0.3%. A similar rise to last month’s 0.2% rise is predicted now.
10. Final Services PMI: Friday, 9:00. The services sector returned to growth in January, according to the initial publication. These good news will likely be confirmed in the final version and will be positive for the single currency.
11. Retail Sales: Friday, 10:00. The total volume of sales in the euro-zone has flipped between small rises and bigger drops. After a drop of 0.8% last month, a rise is likely now, and perhaps it will be higher than 0.1% seen two months ago.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar gaped lower at the wake of the new week, but quickly recovered. After overcoming the 1.2945 line (mentioned last week) the pair traded in range and then rallied higher, to levels unseen in quite some time.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin from much higher ground this time. The round number of 1.38 capped the pair in September and also later on. It is weak and distant resistance. 1.37 had a similar role at the same time and also worked as support afterwards. It is stronger resistance.

1.3615 switched from support in October to support in November and is now resistance. 1.3550 capped the pair in November and December and marked the beginning of the plunge.

1.3450 was support in November and then switched to minor resistance. It used to be a stronger line, but is only minor now. 1.3330 provided some support for the pair during December 2011 and is minor now.

1.3280 had a similar role at the same time, and is stronger. 1.3212 held the pair from falling and switched to resistance later on.

The 1.3145 line, which was the lowest point recorded in October 2011, was only broken for a short time from the other side and remains very important. 1.3085 was the top border of a very narrow range that characterized the pair towards the end of 2011. It also provided support back in December 2010 and had a pivotal role.

The round number of 1.30 is psychologically important but is much weaker now. It was a pivotal line before Bernanke’s rally. The 1.2945 line is stronger once again and still provides support.

1.2873 is the previous 2011 low set in January, and it returns to support once again. This is a very strong line separating ranges. 1.2760 is a pivotal line in the middle of a recent range. It provided support early in the year.

1.2660 was a double bottom during January and the move below this line is not confirmed yet. 1.2623 is the current 2012 low, but only has a minor role now.

A more important line is 1.2587, the trough of August 2010. This line will be closely watched on any move downwards. A break below this line will send the pair to levels last seen 18 months ago.

Uptrend Support Formed

EUR/USD is riding on a neat yet steep uptrend support line that began from January’s trough. Downtrend resistance was clearly broken.

I am neutral on EUR/USD

Bernanke’s new rate pledge and talk about QE3 in the housing sector definitely weakens the dollar. Also the positive economic signs from the old continent certainly help single currency. Nevertheless, the Greek saga is far from being over, and could heavily weigh on the euro.

If you have interest in a different way of trading currencies, check out the weekly binary options setups, including EUR/USD, GBP/JPY and more.

Sumber: Forexcrunch