Bernanke: Fed Akan Melindungi AS Dari Krisis Eropa

Gubernur Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke di hari Selasa menegaskan janji untuk mencegah krisis keuangan Eropa merusak perekonomian AS, seperti pernyataannya pekan lalu. "Kami sering berhubungan dengan pihak pemerintah di Eropa, dan akan terus memantau situasi secara dekat dan mengambil langkah apapun yang tersedia untuk melindungi sistem keuangan AS dan perekonomian,'' ucap Bernanke pada Senate Budget Committee.

Gubernur Fed mempertahankan outlook yang mencemaskan pada perkeonomian AS dan tidak berkomentar mengenai kejutan data tenaga kerja AS yang kuat pada hari Jumat lalu. "Menurutku jalan masih jauh sebelum kita dapat mengatakan pasar tenaga kerja beroperasi secara normal,'' ucapnya, dalam pernyataan hari Kamis sebelum House budget panel.

Sumber: Monexnews

Fed’s Bernanke Tegaskan Pentingnya Kestabilan Fiskal

Pimpinan Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, kembali tegaskan pentingnya kestabilan fiskal bagi ekonomi AS. 

"AS harus pastikan rasio utang terhadap GDP turun secara bertahap atau setidaknya tetap stabil. Kondisi dapat cepat berubah jika investor kehilangan kepercayaan atas kemampuan pemerintah dalam mengelola kebijakan fiskal," ujar Bernanke kepada Kongress. 

Bernanke juga peringatkan krisis utang Eropa dapat perlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi global dan masih menjadi hambatan bagi pemulihan AS.

Sementara itu, dollar melemah di sesi New York dengan EUR/USD dan GBP/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.3210 dan 1.5829, dekat level tinggi harian 1.3224 dan 1.5843.

Sumber: Monexnews

Zona-Euro Dapat Bertahan Tanpa Yunani

Zona-euro dapat bertahan meskipun Yunani terpaksa keluar, menurut Komisioner Eropa Neelie Kroes. “Jika Yunani keluar, zona-euro tidak akan alami kesulitan,” ujar Kroes yang mengawasi sektor telekomunikasi dan internet di 27 negara yang tergabung dalam Uni Eropa.

"Ketika salah satu anggota keluar dari monetary union maka ini bukan berarti akhir dari segalanya,” tutur Kroes ketika diwawancarai oleh surat kabar Belanda Volkskrant. “Ada persepsi jika salah satu anggota zona-euro keluar maka zona-euro akan bubar; namun ini tidak benar.”

Pemimpin Yunani masih lakukan negosiasi demi sepakati reformasi ekonomi yang diperlukan untuk amankan pencairan dana bailout €130 miliar sehingga bisa mencegah default. Kroes katakan para pemimpin politik Yunani harus sadar bahwa pemerintah Belanda dan Jerman hanya dapat ajukan ide dana bailout kepada rakyatnya jika Yunani bisa tunjukan itikad untuk selesaikan krisis.

Sementara itu, euro melemah di sesi New York. EUR/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.3101, jauhi level tinggi harian 1.3168.

 

 

 

Sumber: Monexnews

PM Finlandia: 'Semua Tergantung Yunani Sendiri'

Yunani sedang kesulitan memenuhi kewajiban pelunasan hutang yang akan segera jatuh tempo. Tanpa kesepakatan dalam waktu dekat, pemerintah tidak akan mampu bertahan.

Demikian pendapat dari Perdana Menteri Finlandia, Jyrki Katainen hari ini. Katainen menyoroti dua pekerjaan rumah bagi Athena, yaitu persetujuan bersama terkait toleransi kerugian obligasi 'beracun' yang harus diterima investor. Sedangkan tugas ke dua adalah memberlakukan program pemangkasan yang dirancang oleh otoritas sebagai pra-syarat bail out jilid II senilai 130 miliar euro.

Deadline dari negosiasi kerugian obligasi 100 miliar euro adalah tanggal 13 Februari. Artinya, jika tidak tercapai maka Yunani benar-benar bangkrut kecuali Lucas Papademos bisa menemukan keajaiban sebelum masa jatuh tempo 20 Maret. "Jika mereka mampu melakukan reformasi struktural dan program privatisasi, segala sesuatunya bisa lebih baik," ujar Katainen. Ia menyerukan pihak pemerintah untuk lebih ambisius lagi memangkas anggaran dan memperbaiki sektor pajak supaya target anggaran bisa tercapai. "Restrukturisasi hutang swasta juga penting, tanpa itu posisi Yunani makin terjepit," tambah Katainen.

Finlandia berjanji untuk terus bersikap kritis sampai segala sesuatunya jelas. Anggota Eropa lain juga tengah menanti finalisasi dari perkembangan isu hutang negeri dewa dewi. "Solusi sudah diketahui, sekarang tidak ada yang bisa membantu Yunani kecuali diri mereka sendiri," tutup Katainen.

Sumber: Monexnews

Demonstrasi Non-stop Berlangsung di Athena

Serupa dengan kondisi beberapa bulan silam, kebijakan efisiensi Yunani kembali ditentang oleh mayoritas warga. Serikat pekerja hari ini kompak melancarkan demonstrasi besar-besaran menentang wacana baru pemerintah.

Perdana Menteri Lucas Papademos dituntut menjalankan kebijakan kejam sebagai prasyarat untuk mendapat dana talangan baru dari Uni Eropa dan Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF). Di dalamnya termasuk klausul pemotongan upah pekerja untuk jangka waktu yang belum ditentukan. Sebanyak 15.000 pegawai negeri dan instansi terkait bahkan harus segera rela dirumahkan tahun ini.

Aksi mogok 24-jam dilakukan oleh karyawan sektor swasta maupun pegawai negeri sipil. Selain membekukan jalur transportasi di kota Athena, operasional kapal feri juga dihentikan. Adapun kantor layanan publik, sekolah dan pengadilan juga tidak aktif hari ini. Sebanyak tiga aksi protes besar direncanakan berlangsung di 3 tempat terpisah kota Athena.

Pemerintah koalisi tengah berupaya meloloskan proposal pemangkasan baru supaya bisa secepatnya mendapat bailout sebesar 130 miliar euro. Jika tidak, maka negara terancam bangkrut pada Maret mendatang. Pihak Troika (Uni Eropa, IMF dan ECB) kemarin sudah membahas perkembangan masalah dana talangan kemarin. Pertemuan dilanjutkan hari ini dan pemerintah diprediksi akan meminta keringanan dalam program pemangkasan yang ditentukan.

 Sumber: Monexnews

EUR/USD Outlook February 6-10 2012

Euro/dollar remained steady as the US was in the limelight and the debt crisis was on the back burner. Greece returns to center stage. Will a solution be found? Or is a fall awaiting us?. The main event this week is the rate decision. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Pressure is growing on Greece’s politicians to accept harsher measures regarding the labor market and to fully commit to them, also after the elections. Negotiations are at a sensitive point. In the US, the excellent jobs report lowers the chances of QE3 and provided hope for the whole world. It weakened EUR/USD.

EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. German WPI: Publication time unknown at the moment. Wholesales prices remained unchanged after two months of bigger changes: a rise of 0.7% and a drop of 1%. No big changes are predicted now.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. This survey of 2700 analysts and investors has been in negative territory for the past 6 months. This reflects pessimism. Nevertheless, the score surprised by moving up to -21.1 points last month and is now predicted to advance to -14.6 points.
   
3. German Factory Orders: Monday, 11:00. Europe’s No. 1 economy has seen 3 months of relatively strong changes in the value of orders. After a drop of 4.8% last month, a small rise of 0.5% is expected now. A bigger rise won’t be surprising after the sharp falls and given the history of this index.
4. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 11:00. Industrial output corrected a a rise of 0.8% two months ago and dropped by 0.6%. Another small drop of 0.1% is predicted now. The euro is sensitive to larger changes in this indicator.
5. German Trade Balance: Wednesday, 7:00. Germany’s surplus counters the whole continent. After reaching 15.1 billion last month, the top end of the range seen in recent months, a drop to 14.1 is expected in the surplus. A weaker euro helps Germany’s export machine.
6. Rate decision: Thursday, 12:45, with press conference at 13:30. There is a relatively low chance that Mario Draghi will cut the interest rate to 0.75%. Most economic indicators across the continent point to a recession, and a rate cut could help the economies. But the move will likely run into opposition, as 1% is the lowest rate ever, also during the worst days of the financial crisis. In addition, headline inflation is still above the 2% target, at 2.7%. It’s clear that for Draghi, headline inflation isn’t the “single needle in the compass”, but he will have a hard time convincing other members.
   Draghi takes pride in the LTRO operation that stabilized the banks. This will likely be the focus of the press conference, towards the next operation at the end of the month.
7. German Final CPI: Friday, 7:00. According to the initial publication, prices fell by 0.4% in January. This will likely be confirmed now. A sharper fall in prices can trigger more pressure for cuts on Draghi.
8. French Industrial Production: Friday, 7:45. Europe’s second largest economy enjoyed two consecutive months of growth in industrial output. The surprising rise of 1.1% seen last month will likely be corrected with a drop of 0.8% this time.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar kicked off the week with a drop to the 1.3060 line before bouncing to the 1.3212 line (mentioned last week). Both lines were temporarily breached at times, but towards the end of the week, this turned into a perfect range. All in all, the pair ended the week a bit lower, at 1.3143.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

The round number of 1.38 capped the pair in September and also later on. It is weak and distant resistance. 

1.37 had a similar role at the same time and also worked as support afterwards. It is stronger resistance.

1.3615 switched from support in October to support in November and is now resistance. 1.3550 capped the pair in November and December and marked the beginning of the plunge.

1.3450 was support in November and then switched to minor resistance. It used to be a stronger line, but is only minor now. 1.3330 provided some support for the pair during December 2011 and is minor now.

Quite close by, 1.3280 had a similar role at the same time, and is stronger. 1.3212 held the pair from falling and switched to resistance later on. This is a key resistance line, as seen in February 2012.

The 1.3145 line, which was the lowest point recorded in October 2011, is now a pivotal line in the middle of the range. 1.3060 was the top border of a very narrow range that characterized the pair towards the end of 2011. It is now key support on the downside after serving as the bottom border of the range.

The round number of 1.30 is psychologically important but is much weaker now. It was a pivotal line before Bernanke’s rally. The 1.2945 line is stronger once again and still provides support.

1.2873 is the previous 2011 low set in January, and it returns to support once again. This is a very strong line separating ranges. 1.2760 is a pivotal line in the middle of a recent range. It provided support early in the year.

1.2660 was a double bottom during January and the move below this line is not confirmed yet. 1.2623 is the current 2012 low, but only has a minor role now.

A more important line is 1.2587, the trough of August 2010. This line will be closely watched on any move downwards. A break below this line will send the pair to levels last seen 18 months ago.

Uptrend / Downtrend Channels Broken

EUR/USD has now stabilized in flat range trading after the downtrend channel and later the uptrend channels have been broken.

I turn from neutral to bearish on EUR/USD

Time is running out. Greece is getting closer to default. It isn’t clear if the blame is on the Greek leg dragging or on the harsh pressure from the troika. As time passes by, a solution is further away and more money leaves Greek banks. Also with an orderly default, Portugal is just around the corner for following Greece’s footsteps.

For the euro, one of the main drivers higher was the higher chance of QE3 in the US. With such a strong jobs report, the chances of dollar printing are now significantly lower.

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Sumber: Forexcrunch

Yunani Ingin ECB Berpartisipasi

Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) harus ambil bagian dalam kesepakatan debt swap, menurut Menteri Keuangan Yunani Evangelos Venizelos. Negosiasi Athena dengan kreditur swastanya masih berlangsung; namun kini muncul keinginan apakah ECB perlu turut berpartisipasi dalam kesepakatan penukaran utang. Partisipasi ECB tentunya dapat permulus negosiasi Athena dan juga berikan insentif kepada politikus Yunani untuk dukung reformasi ekonomi lebih lanjut demi amankan dana bailout €130 miliar.

"Sejalan dengan negosiasi dengan kreditor swasta, harus ada negosiasi atas keterlibatan lembaga pemerintah. Ini berarti ECB harus turut berpartisipasi," ujar Venizelos kepada anggota parlemen partai Sosialis. Kreditur swasta sebelumnya telah meminta agar ECB, pemegang terbesar obligasi pemerintah Yunani, turut menanggung beban restrukturisasi utang.

Sementara itu, euro menguat di sesi London. EUR/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.3170, jauhi level rendah harian 1.3114.

Sumber: Monexnews

Yunani Butuh Bailout Ekstra

Zona-euro mungkin harus sediakan bailout II hingga €145 miliar untuk Athena, menurut sumber dari Reuters. 

Jumlah ini lebih banyak €15 miliar dari €130 miliar yang disepakati tahun lalu. “Yunani butuh dana ekstra untuk bantu rekapitalisasi sektor perbankan, terutama setelah kesepakatan debt swap dapat tercapai,” ujar nara sumber Reuters yang enggan publikasi namanya.

Negosiasi Athena masih berlanjut dengan kreditor sektor swasta; dimana swasta diprediksi akan kehilangan 70% dari nilai obligasi pemerintah Yunani yang dimilikinya.  Namun, masih belum jelas berapa banyak keterlibatan dari institusi pemerintah – ECB dan bank sentral di zona euro- yang diperlukan demi bantu turunkan rasio utang Yunani ke tingkat yang berkelanjutan.

Sementara itu, euro melemah di sesi New York. EUR/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.3120, jauhi level rendah harian 1.3205.

Sumber: Reuters

Eropa Berupaya Bangkit Pasca Kesuksesan Lelang Obligasi

Setelah sempat tertekan di awal sesi hari Kamis akibat laporan earnings beberapa perusahaan besar seperti Unilever yang lebih lemah dari ekspektasi, sedikit demi sedikit bursa-bursa utama Eropa berupaya bangkit menyusul hasil menggembirakan yang datang dari lelang obligasi Spanyol dan Perancis.

Indeks DAX Jerman dan CAC Perancis mampu kembali ke teritori positif dengan masing-masing mengumpulkan 0,25% dan 0,2%. Sementara indeks FTSE Inggris masih tertahan di zona merah kendati berhasil mengurangi pelemahan menjadi hanya 0,08%.

Pada hari Kamis pemerintah Perancis berhasil menjual €7,96 milyar obligasi yang akan jatuh tempo pada 2018 dan 2020 dengan yield masing-masing 2,44% dan 2,91%. Sedangkan pemerintah Spanyol juga mencapai kesuksesan setelah menjual €4,554 milyar surat hutang bertenor 3-tahun, 4-tahun dan 5-tahun dengan rata-rata yield yang lebih rendah. Imbal hasil obligasi 3-tahun turun menjadi 2,861% dari sebelumnya 3,384%, yield obligasi 4-tahun juga turun dari 4,021% menjadi 3,455%, vs sebelumnya), sedangkan obligasi 5-tahun dilepas dengan yield 3,565%.

Keberhasilan dalam 2 lelang tersebut mampu mempersempit spread mereka terhadap obligasi pemerintah Jerman.

 

 

 

Sumber: Monexnews

EUR/USD Outlook Jan. 30 – Feb. 3 2012

Euro/dollar had a fantastic week, rising on fresh hope for Greece and from a weaker dollar, courtesy of Ben Bernanke. The upcoming week starts with an important summit and is packed with economic indicators. Here is an outlook for the week’s events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Bernanke’s pledge to keep interest rates at near-zero levels until late 2014 and the openness towards QE3 hurt the dollar across the board and the euro certainly enjoyed it. And Europe isn’t only Greece: fresh figures provide hope that Europe could avoid an outright recession. Also the downgrade many euro-zone countries by Fitch couldn’t stop the move. of Will this rally continue?

Updates: Germany reportedly wanted a bigger influence on Greece’s budget decisions, and Greece rejected it. Together with the still-stuck PSI talks, the euro faces pressure at the beginning of the week. EUR/USD indeed slid within the rising channel as the EU Economic Summit begins. Italy’s bond auction was OK, but still worrying. Another rally was capped and ended in a downfall, below channel support. The situation in Greece and Portugal is becoming worse. The euro is ignoring the German cornering of Greece and prefers to see the global growth. EUR/USD managed to recapture the channel it lost and it now trades under 1.32.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. EU Economic Summit: Monday. The series of meetings, conferences and summits continue. Talk about keeping Greece off the agenda were likely premature. The role of the ECB in the debt crisis, safeguarding other countries and avoiding recession are probably going to be high on the agenda. It will be interesting to see how France’s role, after it lost its AAA rating.
2. German CPI: Monday. The German states publish their initial CPI estimates at various hours during the day. After a few months of little changes, prices jumped by 0.7% last month. Another month of rises is likely now, but the scale will likely be lower.
3. German Retail Sales: Tuesday, 7:00. Europe’s No. 1 economy has shown positive economic signs of late.  After two months of drops in the volume of retail sales, a rise is expected now.
4. French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 7:45. Europe’s second largest economy has seen subtle changes in the level of consumer spending in the past few months. A rise will probably follow last month’s minor slide of 0.1%.
5. German Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 8:55. Germany continues to enjoy a drop in the number of unemployed people and a drop in its unemployment rate, which attracts migrants from all over the continent. After losing 22K unemployed people last month, a smaller drop is expected now.
6. Unemployment Rate: Tuesday, 10:00. Contrary to Germany, most other euro-zone countries are suffering higher unemployment. The harmonized figure is 10.3%, and will likely remain unchanged. A similar figure is expected now.
7. Final Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 9:00. The initial purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector exceeded expectations, rising to 48.7 points. This is still in contraction zone (under 50 points). The figure will likely be confirmed.
8. CPI Flash Estimate: Wednesday, 10:00. Headline inflation remains above the 2% target, but this plays a smaller role in the ECB’s policy making process. A small drop from last month’s 2.8% rate is expected now.
9. PPI: Thursday, 10:00. Producer prices have been on the rise for the past 3 months, but the pace has been quite moderate: 0.1% to 0.3%. A similar rise to last month’s 0.2% rise is predicted now.
10. Final Services PMI: Friday, 9:00. The services sector returned to growth in January, according to the initial publication. These good news will likely be confirmed in the final version and will be positive for the single currency.
11. Retail Sales: Friday, 10:00. The total volume of sales in the euro-zone has flipped between small rises and bigger drops. After a drop of 0.8% last month, a rise is likely now, and perhaps it will be higher than 0.1% seen two months ago.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar gaped lower at the wake of the new week, but quickly recovered. After overcoming the 1.2945 line (mentioned last week) the pair traded in range and then rallied higher, to levels unseen in quite some time.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin from much higher ground this time. The round number of 1.38 capped the pair in September and also later on. It is weak and distant resistance. 1.37 had a similar role at the same time and also worked as support afterwards. It is stronger resistance.

1.3615 switched from support in October to support in November and is now resistance. 1.3550 capped the pair in November and December and marked the beginning of the plunge.

1.3450 was support in November and then switched to minor resistance. It used to be a stronger line, but is only minor now. 1.3330 provided some support for the pair during December 2011 and is minor now.

1.3280 had a similar role at the same time, and is stronger. 1.3212 held the pair from falling and switched to resistance later on.

The 1.3145 line, which was the lowest point recorded in October 2011, was only broken for a short time from the other side and remains very important. 1.3085 was the top border of a very narrow range that characterized the pair towards the end of 2011. It also provided support back in December 2010 and had a pivotal role.

The round number of 1.30 is psychologically important but is much weaker now. It was a pivotal line before Bernanke’s rally. The 1.2945 line is stronger once again and still provides support.

1.2873 is the previous 2011 low set in January, and it returns to support once again. This is a very strong line separating ranges. 1.2760 is a pivotal line in the middle of a recent range. It provided support early in the year.

1.2660 was a double bottom during January and the move below this line is not confirmed yet. 1.2623 is the current 2012 low, but only has a minor role now.

A more important line is 1.2587, the trough of August 2010. This line will be closely watched on any move downwards. A break below this line will send the pair to levels last seen 18 months ago.

Uptrend Support Formed

EUR/USD is riding on a neat yet steep uptrend support line that began from January’s trough. Downtrend resistance was clearly broken.

I am neutral on EUR/USD

Bernanke’s new rate pledge and talk about QE3 in the housing sector definitely weakens the dollar. Also the positive economic signs from the old continent certainly help single currency. Nevertheless, the Greek saga is far from being over, and could heavily weigh on the euro.

If you have interest in a different way of trading currencies, check out the weekly binary options setups, including EUR/USD, GBP/JPY and more.

Sumber: Forexcrunch