Analysts See Record S&P 500 as Advance Over for Barclays

Analysts predict U.S. shares will rise enough this year to boost the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a record, even as Wall Street strategists say the best is already over for American equities. 

Individual price forecasts for stocks show the combined projection for the benchmark gauge has climbed to 1,569.74, according to more than 10,000 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with the October 2007 high of 1,565.15. At the same time, strategists who base their predictions on assessments of the economy say this year’s 12 percent rally represents all the gains investors will see. 

Bullish forecasts are based on analysts’ expectations that S&P 500 earnings will reach records every year through 2014 as stimulus by the Federal Reserve props up the U.S. economy. More than 70 percent of companies have exceeded estimates with first- quarter results. Bears say Europe’s debt crisis won’t be contained and economic growth will be insufficient to maintain gains that have restored more than $3 trillion to U.S. equities in six months. 

“The financial strength of corporate America is stronger than people believe,” Jeffrey Schwarte, a money manager who helps oversee about $258.2 billion in Des Moines, Iowa, at Principal Global Investors, said in a telephone interview on April 25. “We believe earnings ultimately matter.”  

 Apple, Boeing 

Stocks rose last week, pushing the S&P 500 up 1.8 percent to 1,403.36, as earnings topped estimates at Apple Inc. (AAPL), the world’s largest company by market value, and Boeing Co., the biggest aerospace company. Computer and software providers, telecommunications companies and banks and brokerages are topping estimates by more than 10 percent on average, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

The benchmark gauge for American equities has climbed 107 percent since March 2009, pulling within 12 percent of its record high. The measure is up 28 percent after falling to a one-year low Oct. 3 as U.S. unemployment dropped from 9.1 percent to 8.2 percent in seven months. Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in June slipped less than 0.1 percent to 1,398.3 as of 9:40 a.m. in London today. 

About 75 percent of the companies in the benchmark measure that reported results since April 10 have exceeded Wall Street earnings projections, beating by an average of 7.1 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the highest rate in four quarters, the data show. Eight of the 10 groups in the index have delivered income that surpassed projections.

Record Profits

Analysts are signaling that 13 straight quarters of higher- than-expected earnings and record profits through 2014 will help drive the gauge back to its all-time high. Earnings will jump 14 percent to $105.12 a share in 2012, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. 

Record profits have failed to convince strategists that the S&P 500 will advance further. As much as $770 billion was wiped off the values of U.S. equities after the measure peaked on April 2, amid concern over Europe’s debt crisis and slower-than- estimated U.S. jobs growth. 

The benchmark index will end this year at 1,384, or 1.4 percent below its close on April 27, according to the average of 11 strategists tracked by Bloomberg. While earnings topped projections, they’ve spurred average post-earnings daily gains of just 1 percent in companies that exceeded estimates. That compares with a five-year average of 1.3 percent, Bloomberg data show.

‘Policy Uncertainty’

“When companies beat, their stocks are basically unchanged relative to the market,” Barry Knapp, the New York-based head of equity strategy at Barclays Plc, said in a telephone interview on April 27. “What drives real secular bull markets is multiple expansion. Massive policy uncertainty exists today in both monetary and public policy. Settling those two issues is a necessary condition to have another bull market.” 

Knapp says the S&P 500 will fall to 1,330 at the end of the year. Strategists’ mean forecast for the S&P 500 has been below stock analysts’ projection for the index since at least April 1, 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The spread reached its widest level since then on April 27. 

Gina Martin Adams, the New York-based equity strategist for Wells Fargo & Co., said the S&P 500 will fall to 1,360 as the Fed ends its Operation Twist, a plan to swap $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with long-term securities to lengthen the average maturity of its holdings. The federal budget deficit and slowest post-recession expansion since World War II are holding valuations down, she said.

‘More Downside’

“The market is set up for a little more downside than upside risk, more because of policy reasons than anything,” Adams said in a telephone interview on April 25. “It’s not really an earnings question, but more of a valuation question. Over the last three years in every instance the Fed has finished one of its major programs, stocks have suffered.” 

The S&P 500 slid last year to a two-year low of 11.9 times reported profit after the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing ended, Europe’s crisis intensified and American lawmakers debated raising the federal debt limit. While the gauge’s multiple has since rebounded to 14.3, it’s still below the six- decade historical average of 16.4, Bloomberg data show. 

Lloyd C. Blankfein, chairman and chief executive officer at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said he is more optimistic about markets than some economists. 

“Gun to my head, I tend to be a little bit more positive than what I’m hearing from other people,” he said during an April 25 interview on Bloomberg Television with Erik Schatzker. “The world is a little bit bifurcated between what economists are saying and what market people are saying.”

Delivery Demand

FedEx Corp. (FDX), a barometer for the economy because it delivers goods from mobile electronics to pharmaceuticals, may reach $123 a share, surpassing the record $120.97 in February 2007, according to Justin Yagerman, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG. While European demand remains a risk and has hurt Asian exports, the world’s largest cargo airline is cheaper than five years ago. The Memphis, Tennessee-based company closed at $88.27 last week. 

“Slowing European demand has been a risk factor, though commentary anecdotally from companies has been that Europe has probably held up better than expected,” New York-based Yagerman said in a telephone interview on April 25. “We take an optimistic view on global growth over the long term. Over the near term, we’re extremely bullish on domestic U.S. growth and a lot of that’s driven by e-commerce and by pricing.”

Macy’s Rallies

Daniela Nedialkova, a London-based analyst for Atlantic Equities LLP, predicts Macy’s Inc. (M) will jump to $51 a share, 9.7 percent above its March 2007 record of $46.51. While annual sales at the department-store operator have slipped 2.1 percent since 2007, the Cincinnati-based company has improved its inventory management systems and product lines in the last five years, she said. Macy’s rallied 5.4 percent last week to $41.19. 

“2007 was still very much in the consumer spending boom years,” Nedialkova said in a telephone interview on April 26. “Versus how the company looked in 2007, I think it’s in so much better shape,” she said. “The way I’m modeling sales growth at Macy’s is actually thinking about market-share gains. If the economy actually improved, that would help.” 

Gross domestic product in the U.S. will expand 2.3 percent this year, according to the median economist projection, compared with 1.7 percent in 2011 and 3 percent in 2010. Economists forecast the euro area will contract 0.4 percent and China will expand at the slowest pace since 2001. 

“The U.S. economy is going to grow faster than people think, so I think we’re going to not have a recession,” Byron Wien, the New York-based vice chairman of the advisory services unit at Blackstone Group LP, the world’s biggest private-equity firm, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television with Tom Keene last week. 

The Federal Reserve suggested “growth is going to be better than expected,” Wien said. “Earnings are going to be good.” 

Source: Bloomberg

Forex Weekly Outlook January 16-20

The dollar made an impressing comeback at the end of a very eventful week. Will this continue? German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a rate decision in Canada, employment data in Australia and US housing figures are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main events in the week ahead.

Last week, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi communicated calm and satisfaction with the central bank’s LTRO program saying it has successfully combated credit erosion. That move only provided temporary calm to the markets, until the massive downgrade by S&P for euro-zone countries and the collapse of talks between Greece and the banks. Also US data is beginning to worsen.

Let’s start !

1. Euro-Zone German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. German economic sentiment rebounded from its lowest level since November 2008 rising by 1.4 points to -53.8 in December. Economists predicted a further drop of 0.6 points to -55.8. The EU summit decisions may have contributed to improve this reading. Another improvement to -49.1is expected now.
2. Canadian rate decision: Tuesday, 14:00. The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 1% in December due to an upbeat position on Canadian and US market conditions. The BOE members agreed that the EU economic crisis does bare a downside risk on world markets but were rather confident about their current financial strength. No clues were given about possible future rate cuts. No change in rates is predicted.
3. UK unemployment claims: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in theU.K. increased by 3,000 in November well below the 16,000 increase predicted, while the unemployment rate remained elevated at 8.3%. October reading showed a rise of 2,500 new claims. An increase of 6,300 clims is expected now.
4. US PPI: Wednesday, 13:30. Producer price index  for finished goods rise by 0.3% November amid a sharp increase in food prices while the Producer Price index excluding food and energy increased by 0.1%.  A climb of 0.2% is forecasted.
5.  US TIC Long-Term Purchases: Wednesday, 14:00. US net foreign purchases of long-term securities dropped sharply to USD4.8 billion in October from USD 68.3 billion in September after China sold USD14.2 billion in U.S. Treasuries in October and the UK sold USD13.2 billion. A rise to 27.3 billion in foreign purchases is predicted now.
6. Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30. The Australian job market has contracted by 6,300 positions in November following a revised reading of 16,800 job gain in October. This reading was well below the 10,300 addition expected by analysts. In the meantime unemployment rate increased from 5.2% in October to 5.3% in November. A rise of 10,300 new jobs is expected and Unemployment rate is predicted to remain 5.3%.
7. US Building Permits: Thursday, 13:30. Residential construction permits surged to an annual rate of685,000 in November, the highest rate in almost two years, amid low mortgage rates and a surge in apartment construction. The reading was well above predictions of 630,000 and may help boost the housing market sector. Building permits are expected to remain around 630,000 units.
8. US inflation rate: Thursday, 13:30. The cost of living in theU.S. didn’t change in November after dropping 0.1% in October while economists predicted 0.1% gain. Corporations are reluctant to raise prices in fear consumers will reduce their purchasing activity causing inflation to moderate. Meantime, Core prices, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% while 0.1% gain was predicted.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of people filing initial claims for unemployment benefits in theU.S. increased sharply last week reaching 399,000 from375,000 in the prior week. This reading was contrary to analysts predictions for a drop to 372,000 suggesting a relapse  in the recent growth trend in theUS job market.392K
10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 15:00. US Manufacturing sector expanded in December reaching 10.3 from3.6 in November. The survey revealed a rise in new orders as well as a small increase in prices of finished goods.  Analysis expected a smaller rise to 5.1. Another rise to 11.2 is predicted now.
11. US Existing Home Sales: Friday, 15:00. Sales of existing homes increased 4.0% in November to 4.42 million-units after a revised 4.25 million units in October however the increase was less than the 5.04 million predicted by analysts. The building market is expected to further recover in the coming months. This time existing home sales is expected to increase to 4.69 million.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies.

Happy trading !

Dari: Berbagai Sumber

Iranian, Venezuelan leaders rebuff U.S., joke about bomb

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez lavished each other with praise on Monday, mocked U.S. disapproval and joked about having an atomic bomb at their disposal.

"Despite those arrogant people who do not wish us to be together, we will unite forever," the Iranian president told socialist leader Chavez at the start of a visit to four left-leaning Latin American nations.

Despite their geographical distance, the fiery anti-U.S. ideologues have forged increasingly close ties between their fellow OPEC nations in recent years, although concrete projects have often lagged behind the rhetoric.

Ahmadinejad was in Venezuela at the start of a tour intended to shore up support as expanded Western economic sanctions kick in over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.

"The imperialist madness has been unleashed in a way that has not been seen for a long time," Chavez said in a ceremony to welcome Ahmadinejad at his presidential palace in Caracas.

Both men hugged, beamed, held hands and showered each other with praise.

As he often does, the theatrical and provocative Chavez stuck his finger right into the global political sore spot, joking that a bomb was ready under a grassy knoll in front of his Miraflores palace steps.

"That hill will open up and a big atomic bomb will come out," he said, the two men laughing together.

"The imperialist spokesmen say ... Ahmadinejad and I are going into the Miraflores basement now to set our sights on Washington and launch cannons and missiles ... It's laughable."

U.S. officials from President Barack Obama down have expressed disquiet over Venezuela's close ties with Iran. They fear Chavez will weaken the international diplomatic front against Iran and could give Tehran an economic lifeline.

The United States and its allies believe Iran's nuclear policy is aimed at producing a weapon. Iran says it is only for peaceful power generation.

As well as Venezuela, Ahmadinejad plans to visit Nicaragua, Cuba and Ecuador -- a visit that Washington has said shows its "desperation" for friends.

ALLIES

Those nations' governments share Chavez's broad global views, but do not have Venezuela's economic clout and are unable to offer Iran any significant assistance.

Regional economic powerhouse Brazil, which gave the Iranian leader a warm welcome when he visited during the previous government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was notably absent from his agenda this time.

Analysts are watching closely to see if Chavez will back Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil shipping lane, or how much he could undermine the sanctions by providing fuel or cash to Tehran.

Ahmadinejad, who is subordinate to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on foreign policy, has said little about the rising tensions with the West, including the sentencing to death of an Iranian-American man for spying for the CIA.

The Venezuelan and Iranian leaders mostly limited their comments on Monday to mutual adulation and anti-U.S. snipes.

"President Chavez is the champion in the war on imperialism," Ahmadinejad said.

"The only bombs we're preparing are bombs against poverty, hunger and misery," added Chavez, saying 14,000 new homes had been built recently in Venezuela by Iranian constructors.



Sumber: Reuters

Inilah Kiat Iran Atasi Embargo Minyak

Iran akui miliki cara untuk mengatasi embargo minyak dari Uni Eropa (UE) dan sanksi dari Amerika Serikat (AS). Teheran telah mempertimbangkan rute yang berbeda jika embargo minyak terjadi. “Kita dapat dengan mudah mengubah para pembeli,” ujar Direktur Komite Nasional Minyak Iran (NIOC), SM Qamsari, Rabu (4/4). Beberapa pembeli dapat dialihkan ke Cina dan negara-negara Asia lainnya serta Afrika.

Qamsari mengatakan pelarangan perbankan AS berhubungan dengan bank sentral Iran telah membuat hidup Iran kesulitan. “Kami sulit mendapatkan uang dari hasil ekspor. Namun kami telah membuat beberapa kanal untuk proses pembayaran,” ujar dia.

 Iran berencana untuk tetap mengekspor 2,3 juta barel minyak per hari pada tahun ini. Ia berharap pengiriman, kuantitas, jadwal, dan kontrak tidak akan berubah pada tahun ini. “Kami memiliki permintaan yang tinggi dari para pengangkut,” ujar dia.

Qamsari menjelaskan kontrak minyak mentah dengan Cina akan diperbarui pada bulan ini. Dua dari tiga kontraktor telah menyetujui besarnya volume. Pihak ketiga masih dalam proses negosisasi. “Kami membuat kemajuan yang bagus dan berharap segera mencapai final,” ujar dia.

Tahun lalu, Iran memiliki kontrak 440 ribu barel minyak per hari ke Cina. Ia berharap pasokan minyak untuk Cina pada 2012 ini tidak berkurang.

Sumber: Republika

Unemployment near three-year low

U.S. employment growth accelerated last month and the jobless rate dropped to a near three-year low of 8.5 percent, the strongest evidence yet the economic recovery is gaining steam.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 200,000 in December, the Labor Department said on Friday. It was the biggest rise in three months and beat economists' expectations for a 150,000 gain.

The unemployment rate fell from a revised 8.7 percent in November to its lowest level since February 2009, a heartening sign for President Barack Obama whose re-election hopes could hinge on the state of the labor market.

"The labor market is healing, but we still have a long way to go to recoup the losses we have endured. We may be close to a tipping point where gains can become more self-feeding," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago.

A string of better-than-expected U.S. data in recent weeks has highlighted a contrast between the recovery in the world's biggest economy and Europe, where the economy is widely believed to be contracting.

The jobs data was overshadowed in financial markets by concerns over Europe's debt crisis. U.S. stocks ended mostly down, while Treasury debt prices rose on safe-haven bids.

The dollar rose to a near 16-month high against the euro.

Republican presidential hopefuls have blasted Obama's economic policies as doing more harm than good.

The latest economic signs, however, could offer him some political protection.

The economy added 1.6 million jobs last year, the most since 2006, and the jobless rate, which peaked at 10 percent in October 2009, has dropped 0.6 percentage point in the last four months.

Obama welcomed the news and urged Congress to extend a two-month payroll tax cut through 2012 to help sustain the recovery.

"We're moving in the right direction. When Congress returns they should extend the middle-class tax cut for all of this year, to make sure we keep this recovery going," he said.

LONG ROAD BACK

Employment remains about 6.1 million below its pre-recession level and at December's pace of job growth, it would take about 2-1/2 years to win those jobs back. There are roughly 4.3 unemployed people for every job opening.

Unseasonably mild weather last month helped fuel a hefty gain in construction employment. Courier jobs also rose sharply, a move the Labor Department pinned on strong online shopping for the holiday season.

Those jobs could be lost in January and the unemployment rate might rise as Americans who had abandoned the hunt for work are lured back into the labor market.

The drop in the jobless rate was mostly due to strong hiring. The labor force shrank only modestly.

A broad measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have stopped looking and those working only part time but who want more work, dropped to an almost three-year low of 15.2 percent from 15.6 percent in November.

Still, all told, 23.7 million Americans are either out of work or underemployed.

With the labor market still far from healthy, the debt crisis in Europe unresolved and tensions over Iran threatening to drive up oil prices, the U.S. economy faces stiff headwinds.

FED STILL IN PLAY

Economists predict the recovery will lose a step early this year after expanding in the fourth quarter at what is expected to be the fastest pace in 1-1/2 years.

While the prospect of a further easing of monetary policy was damped a bit by the jobs data, the shaky outlook means a third round of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve remains an option.

"The Fed will be watching for further credible evidence that this improving trend is gaining traction," said Anthony Karydakis, chief economist at Commerzbank in New York.

New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley on Friday suggested the U.S. central bank was still leaning toward buying more bonds to pull borrowing costs lower, describing the recovery as "frustratingly slow" and the unemployment rate as "unacceptably high."

"I believe it is also appropriate to continue to evaluate whether we could provide additional (policy) accommodation," said Dudley.

GOVERNMENT A DRAG

All the job gains in December came from the private sector, where payrolls rose 212,000 - the most in three months.

Government employment contracted 12,000, with most of the drag coming from local government layoffs. However, the pace of government job losses is moderating as some states report revenue growth after years of being in the red.

For all of 2011, the private sector added 1.9 million jobs, while government employment fell 280,000. A measure of the share of industries that showed job gains during the month rebounded to a five-month high in December after diving in November.

Construction payrolls increased 17,000 after falling 12,000 in November as mild weather has boosted groundbreaking for new homes.

Transportation and warehousing employment jumped 50,200. The bulk of the rise came from the messenger industry, which added 42,000 jobs, reflecting an increase in deliveries of online purchases made during the holiday season.

Manufacturing jobs rose 23,000, the largest increase since July. Factory employment rose 225,000 last year, sustaining gains for the first time since 1997.

But there were soft spots in retail, where payrolls growth slowed to 27,900 after hefty gains in November as retailers geared up for a busy holiday shopping season.

Temporary hiring, seen as a harbinger of future hiring, fell for the first time June, dropping 7,500 in December after gaining 11,200.

Hourly earnings rose a modest four cents, indicating that most of the jobs being created are low paying.

This is a potentially troubling sign for consumer spending, which has been largely supported by a reduction in savings, although it also signals a lack of inflation pressure.

"Firms need to grow wages faster if consumption is to accelerate. There is not a lot of appetite to give raises," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.



Sumber: Reuters

Kecemasan di Timur Tengah Terbangkan Harga Minyak

Harga minyak naik ke atas $101 per barel pada hari Selasa seiring ketegangan antara Iran dan AS memicu kecemasan potensi gangguan pada suplai minyak dari Timur Tengah dan seiring data Cina dan AS yang menunjukkan meningkatnya aktivitas ekonomi.

Latihan militer di bagian Teluk Iran dan pergerakan kapal selam angkatan laut AS di area tersebut meningkatkan kecemasan konfrontasi antara Teheran dan Washington dapat memangkas tingkat ekspor minyak dari kawasan tersebut. Iran mungkin akan menutup Selat Hormuz, yang merupakan jalur pengiriman 40% minyak dunia, jika sanksi diberlakukan pada ekspor minyak mentah. Kantor Berita Iran, IRNA pada hari Selasa mengutip bahwa pasukan Ataollah Salehi mengatakan Iran akan mengambil tindakan jika pesawat AS kembali ke Teluk.


 Dari: Berbagai Sumber

Bursa AS dalam modus menguat awali 2012

Pasar saham AS pada perdagangan sesi Selasa, dan menyemarakkan awal perdagangan tahun baru dalam modus menguat setelah indeks manufaktur AS mencapai kenaikan tertinggi di enam bulan terakhir di pada Desember.

Institute for Supply Management melaporkan survei manufaktur naik ke level 53,9 di bulan lalu dari 52,7 pada bilan November.

Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average naik 245,55 poin atau 2 persen ke level 12,463.11, dengan penurunan terhebat tahun lalu di antara blue chip, Bank of America Corp, pacu kenaikan di sesi Selasa.

Indeks S&P 500 menguat 26,31 poin, atau 2,1 persen ke level 1,283.91, dengan saham perusahaan keuangan catat kenaikan di antara kelompok 10 industri.

Indeks Komposit Nasdaq naik 58,41 poin, atau 2,3 persen ke level 2,663.56.

Hasil pertemuan kebijakan terakhir Federal Reserve AS akan dirilis pada sore hari.

Sumber: Financeroll

U.S. hopes new Iran sanctions more scalpel than axe

The United States has armed itself with some of the toughest sanctions yet targeting Iran but must carefully assess how to avoid catching energy-importing allies such as Japan, South Korea and India in the crossfire.

President Barack Obama signed the law on Saturday imposing sanctions on financial institutions that deal with Iran's central bank, the main clearinghouse through which OPEC's No. 2 oil exporter deals with clients around the world.

The new U.S. sanctions were pushed through Congress despite misgivings among administration officials, who now must consider how to implement the law without roiling global energy markets or upsetting friendly governments that depend in part on Iranian crude oil imports.

Political analysts said Washington hopes the new sanctions will spur foreign banks to change their behavior before the United States is required to begin freezing them out of U.S. financial markets.

"The sanctions will force a choice between buying Iranian oil or engaging in the U.S. financial system, the largest in the world. That is going to change the risk calculus for a lot of folks," said Brian Katulis, a security expert at the Center for American Progress.

"They are going to wait to see how this signal is received before they take any further steps."

MORE SCALPEL THAN AXE

The new U.S. measures target both private and government-controlled banks, including central banks, and would take hold after a two- to six-month warning period depending on the transactions.

U.S. officials acknowledge that allies such as Japan have concerns, and have built in several provisions designed to make the new law more of a scalpel than an axe.

The law allows Obama to exempt institutions in a country that has significantly reduced its dealings with Iran. He may also grant waivers deemed to be in the U.S. national security interest or otherwise necessary for energy market stability.

Obama would need to notify Congress and waivers would be temporary but they could be extended.3
White House officials declined to say which countries have sought waivers or how they expect the sanctions to impact U.S. relations with Iran's oil customers.

China, the No. 1 customer for Iran's oil, and Russia have both resisted additional sanctions on Tehran and are unlikely to be swayed by the new U.S. law, analysts said.

But for countries such as Turkey, which gets about 30 percent of its oil from Iran, or India, which gets 11 percent, the prospect of a U.S. waiver could reduce anxieties over the sanctions and consolidate support for Washington's aggressive stance on Iran's nuclear ambitions.

"There is increased frustration from many of these nations when they see that previous rounds of sanctions haven't done what they were intended to do," said Trita Parsi, an Iran expert and head of the National Iranian American Council.

"Part of the administration argument going into an election against a Republican candidate is that Obama has been able to create a much stronger international coalition against Iran. You can't make that argument if you end up in a conflict with some of those allies."

Waivers also could be selectively granted for humanitarian reasons or for institutions that have forward contracts with Iranian companies - blunting the immediate impact of the new law, while retaining the threat of full implementation.

TENSIONS AND TALKS

The new U.S. sanctions came at a moment of increasing tension with Tehran, which in recent days Iran has tested long-range missiles and staged 10 days of naval exercises in the Gulf. Iran also warned it could shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of world oil is shipped, if sanctions were imposed on its crude exports.

Oil markets have been closely watching the standoff between Tehran and the West, with oil prices finding some support from Iranian threats to cut off the Strait of Hormuz last week.

Top global exporter Saudi Arabia has sought to assure markets, pledging to make up for any shortfalls in Iranian crude supplies to Europe.

Tehran already is subject to four rounds of U.N. sanctions because of its refusal to halt sensitive nuclear activities and faces more pain if the European Union follows the United States and bans imports of Iranian crude oil.

Tehran signaled during the weekend that it was ready to resume talks on its nuclear program with the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany that stalled in January.

Western officials have said repeatedly they still want to talk to Tehran but only if it is ready to discuss the core concerns about its nuclear program. Tehran says the nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes but the United States and others fear it is aimed at producing atomic weapons.

George Lopez, a sanctions expert at the University of Notre Dame, said the new U.S. sanctions could strengthen Washington's hand going into any new talks with Iran after a year of steadily increasing economic pressure.

"This is the book-end to a series of measures that began late last spring in coordination with the EU," Lopez said.

"It sends a strong message to (Iranian President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad and also to domestic constituents that we're not backing off. But it is also a strong message that they should come back to the table."


Sumber: Reuters

Proposal Hutang Obama Tidak akan Terkendala

Presiden Barack Obama bisa mengakhiri tahun dengan manis jika proposal batas hutang pemerintahnya disetujui legislatif. Peluang untuk keluarnya restu parlemen cukup terbuka.

Pekan ini Obama berencana mengajukan draft kenaikan plafon hutang pemerintah sebanyak $1,2 triliun. Angka sebesar itu dibutuhkan kabinet untuk tetap bisa beroperasi sepanjang 2012. Jike disepakati, maka plafon hutang negara Amerika Serikat (AS) naik dari level saat ini, $15,2 triliun ke $16,4 triliun.

Langkah Obama kali ini tampaknya tidak akan terkendala. Proposal hanya bisa pupus jika parlemen dan senat mengajukan resolusi melawan niat pemerintah. Peluangnya sangat kecil mengingat Partai Demokrat sedang menguasai kursi senat.

Pada September lalu, parlemen yang dikontrol oleh Partai Republik meloloskan resolusi yang menolak permintaan Obama untuk menambah plafon hutang, sedangkan senat tidak bersikap serupa. Proposal Obama lebih lapang karena kongres akan masuk masa reses mulai pekan depan sampai 17 Januari. Jadi tidak dimungkinkan membentuk resolusi di tengah liburan, dan kenaikan plafon otomatis berlaku sejak 15 hari pasca pengajuan.

Dari: Berbagai Sumber